The World Series of Economics 2013
I just can’t believe it.
It’s only the 4th week in April and our Cleveland Indians have dropped
to fourth place in the America League Central.
Just look at these statistics!
Team
|
Won
|
Lost
|
Percent
|
Games Behind
|
Last 10
|
Streak
|
Home
|
Away
|
Kansas City
|
10
|
7
|
.588
|
-
|
6-4
|
W-2
|
4-2
|
6-5
|
Minnesota
|
9
|
7
|
.563
|
½
|
5-5
|
W-5
|
5-3
|
4-4
|
Detroit
|
9
|
9
|
.500
|
1 ½
|
5-5
|
L-4
|
4-2
|
5-7
|
Cleveland
|
8
|
10
|
.444
|
2 ½
|
5-5
|
W-3
|
2-6
|
6-4
|
Chicago
|
7
|
12
|
.368
|
4
|
3-7
|
L-4
|
4-5
|
3-7
|
This, of course, is our signal that it’s time to turn our
attention to the World Series of Economics.
Instead of teams, we rank countries, and instead of wins and losses,
games behind, and batting percents, we use six key economic statistics. For example, take a look at Spain, and the
explanation of the stats that follows:
GDP/c
|
Ann % Growth
|
NEFP
|
HDI
|
IE
|
DBT%
|
|
Spain
|
28.5
|
-1.63
|
-8.1
|
.919
|
32.0
|
90.1
|
GDP/c (Gross Domestic Product per capita) –
an indicator of the average individual income in the country for the most
recent year studied, in thousands of US dollars.
Ann % Growth (Average Annual Percentage
Growth in GDP/c) - the average annual percentage growth in individual
income, excluding inflation, over the past five years; that is, are the people
getting richer or poorer?
NEFP (Net Ecological Footprint per person)
- an indicator showing how efficiently the country’s people are making use of
natural resources. A positive number
means the average person uses fewer acres of natural resources than are
available in the country. A negative
number means he/she uses more than are available.
HDI (Human Development Index) - a
quality of life index encompassing the life expectancy of each individual plus
the average and the expected levels of education. An index of .919 for Spain reflects a life
expectancy of 81.6 years, average years of schooling of 10.4 and expected years
of schooling of 16.4.
IE (Income Equality) - an indicator of
income equality. 0 would mean every person makes the same amount, 100 would
mean one person makes all the money. The
greater the value, the greater is the difference between the richest and
poorest segments of the population.
DBT% (%Debt to GDP) – the percentage of
public debt to GDP; an indicator of financial stability. Too much debt stifles investment and
therefore growth. It places extreme debt carrying charges (i.e., interest) on
future generations.
The World Series competition includes 118 countries with
populations of 5 million or more. They
are grouped into nine divisions; four in the Western League, five in the
Eastern League. Winners are determined
by the number of top 3 finishes in each of the 6 categories. You can find the full database, as well as
rankings, averages, definitions and sources at http://xxxxx/WorldSeriesSpreadsheet.xlsx.
This year the division winners are:
Western League:
North/Central
America-Canada, South America-Chile, Western Europe-Sweden, Eastern Europe-Belarus.
Eastern League:
N Africa/African
Horn-Algeria, Sub-Saharan Africa-Ghana, Middle East-Saudi Arabia, Central/South Asia-Kazakhstan, Far East/Oceana-Australia.
How did these countries achieve winning status in their
division? As you read about each you’ll see some common themes:
Educating a healthy work force
Building effective infrastructure
Stable Democratic government
Focus on International free trade
Financial Conservatism
Intelligent use of natural
resources
Ability to attract foreign investment
Belief in free market economies, private enterprise
Here’s a recap of the winners by division:
WESTERN LEAGUE
North America
|
GDP/c
|
Ann % Growth
|
NEFP
|
HDI
|
IE
|
DBT%
|
Canada
|
51.0
|
.27
|
21.0
|
.934
|
32.1
|
87.5
|
Division Average
|
13.5
|
1.12
|
0.0
|
.752
|
46.7
|
49.1
|
World Average
|
14.1
|
1.88
|
1.9
|
.725
|
39.8
|
48.1
|
Canada is again
first in this division. Canada’s strong
points are high GDP/capita with steady growth, an excellent net economic
footprint, a high human development index, and a good spread of income. Canada takes pride in its modern physical
plant and skilled labor force, with an eye toward maintaining natural
resources. The nation focuses on
infrastructure building, healthcare.
Notable Country:
|
GDP/c
|
Ann % Growth
|
NEFP
|
HDI
|
IE
|
DBT%
|
United States
|
49.9
|
-0.26
|
-8.2
|
.958
|
45.0
|
107.2
|
It’s not hard to see here where the US needs to focus. Grow incomes by making more of the stuff the
world needs. Facilitate increased
domestic and international commerce with improved infrastructure. Get our debt down. Use resources efficiently.
South America
|
GDP/c
|
Ann % Growth
|
NEFP
|
HDI
|
IE
|
DBT%
|
Chile
|
15.7
|
2.45
|
1.2
|
.863
|
52.1
|
11.4
|
Division Average
|
8.6
|
2.84
|
10.7
|
.779
|
49.9
|
32.3
|
World Average
|
14.1
|
1.88
|
1.9
|
.725
|
39.8
|
48.1
|
Chile is still
the winner – with firsts in GDP/c, HDI, and debt to GDP. Chile has a commitment to democratic
government, sound economics, and an emphasis on foreign trade. Argentina was a strong second with high GDP/c
growth, human development, and a respectable spread of income.
Western Europe
|
GDP/c
|
Ann % Growth
|
NEFP
|
HDI
|
IE
|
DBT%
|
Sweden
|
57.2
|
.71
|
9.4
|
.940
|
23.0
|
37.0
|
Division Average
|
48.8
|
-0.36
|
-4.8
|
.919
|
29.6
|
76.6
|
World Average
|
14.1
|
1.88
|
1.9
|
.725
|
39.8
|
48.1
|
Sweden repeats as
hands down winner – showing a top 3 standing in all categories and number one
in income distribution and low debt ratio.
Sweden’s secrets: a focus on
international/free trade, an educated/skilled workforce, fiscal conservatism,
many natural resources and effective use of them, and an armed neutrality
concerning foreign affairs.
Eastern Europe
|
GDP/c
|
Ann % Growth
|
NEFP
|
HDI
|
IE
|
DBT%
|
Belarus
|
6.0
|
5.47
|
-1.5
|
.830
|
27.2
|
38.3
|
Division Average
|
11.2
|
1.31
|
-2.8
|
.844
|
32.2
|
50.1
|
World Average
|
14.1
|
1.88
|
1.9
|
.725
|
39.8
|
48.1
|
Belarus is the
repeat winner - followed by Slovakia and Russia. Belarus has an outstanding
growth in GDP per capita, a good use of resources, respectable spread of
income, and a healthy debt to GDP percent.
The country has a strong manufacturing base. It’s focused on free international trade,
privatizing more of the previous state run industry, and increasing foreign
investment.
Notable Country:
|
GDP/c
|
Ann % Growth
|
NEFP
|
HDI
|
IE
|
DBT%
|
Greece
|
23.7
|
-4.17
|
-8.2
|
.899
|
33.0
|
170.7
|
It’s easy to why there’s always a hubbub about Greece in the
European Union.
EASTERN LEAGUE
North
Africa/African Horn
|
GDP/c
|
Ann % Growth
|
NEFP
|
HDI
|
IE
|
DBT%
|
Algeria
|
5.5
|
0.81
|
-2.7
|
.755
|
35.3
|
8.6
|
Division Average
|
2.1
|
1.15
|
-0.7
|
.532
|
38.5
|
47.9
|
World Average
|
14.1
|
1.88
|
1.9
|
.725
|
39.8
|
48.1
|
Algeria is the
repeat winner here with strong showings in total GDP, Human Development Index
and a conservative debt ratio. Gas and
oil reserves are this country’s largest asset.
It has strived to maintain a consistent multiparty government despite
unrest and civil war caused by extremist efforts. Its infrastructure is a problem – unreliable
water supplies and electricity. New
improvement programs have been started and the government is trying to attract
foreign investment.
Sub-Saharan Africa
|
GDP/c
|
Ann % Growth
|
NEFP
|
HDI
|
IE
|
DBT%
|
Ghana
|
1.6
|
5.99
|
-1.1
|
.646
|
39.4
|
44.9
|
Division Average
|
1.3
|
2.11
|
.6
|
.484
|
46.1
|
39.9
|
World Average
|
14.1
|
1.88
|
1.9
|
.725
|
39.8
|
48.1
|
Ghana beat out
South Africa, Nigeria, and last year’s winner Angola to win this tough
division. Even though rich in natural
resources, the countries of Sub-Saharan Africa have many barriers to economic
growth. Bad roads and lack of electricity,
lack of communications, health issues, diverse languages and religions are all
impediments to economic wellbeing.
Ghana scored high in GDP/c, growth in GDP per capita, and Human
Development. Its strengths are a strong
stable government and a competitive business environment. Extensive oil reserves are expected to add
growth.
Middle East
|
GDP/c
|
Ann % Growth
|
NEFP
|
HDI
|
IE
|
DBT%
|
Saudi Arabia
|
24.8
|
2.24
|
-8.3
|
.774
|
32.0
|
5.5
|
Division Average
|
17.2
|
1.53
|
-6.2
|
.727
|
38.7
|
42.8
|
World Average
|
14.1
|
1.88
|
1.9
|
.725
|
39.8
|
48.1
|
Saudi Arabia is
the solid winner here with top three finishes in 5 of the 6 categories. While oil contributes greatly to the economy,
the government is supporting diversified private enterprise and is
concentrating on educating its younger population in order to employ more Saudi
nationals in its efforts. Social Development,
foreign investment and infrastructure are priorities.
Central/South Asia
|
GDP/c
|
Ann % Growth
|
NEFP
|
HDI
|
IE
|
DBT%
|
Kazakhstan
|
11.4
|
3.42
|
-1.6
|
.791
|
26.7
|
12.4
|
Division Average
|
2.7
|
4.62
|
-1.0
|
.647
|
34.7
|
39.6
|
World Average
|
14.1
|
1.88
|
1.9
|
.725
|
39.8
|
48.1
|
Kazakhstan is the
winner again, followed closely by Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. These countries here have benefitted by
moving to market based economies and improving infrastructures. Kazakhstan’s growth and GDP levels are very
good and its debt level is conservative.
It is rich in fossil fuels and minerals.
While the government is a republic with three branches, it remains under
authoritarian rule. It’s making a
concerted effort to diversify its economy into pharmaceuticals, transport,
telecommunications, and food processing.
Electricity and telecommunications are structural problems. Landlocked, it must efficiently get its
products to neighboring country seaport.
Notable Country:
|
GDP/c
|
Ann % Growth
|
NEFP
|
HDI
|
IE
|
DBT%
|
India
|
1.5
|
5.73
|
-1.0
|
.575
|
36.8
|
67.6
|
India’s 1.2 billion people have an average income of just
$1500 dollars per year. Its HDI
represents a life expectancy of just 66 years and average years of schooling of
4.4.
Far East/Oceana
|
GDP/c
|
Ann % Growth
|
NEFP
|
HDI
|
IE
|
DBT%
|
Australia
|
70.0
|
1.35
|
19.5
|
.978
|
30.5
|
27.1
|
Division Average
|
16.7
|
3.29
|
22.4
|
.744
|
41.5
|
50.8
|
World Average
|
14.1
|
1.88
|
1.9
|
.725
|
39.8
|
48.1
|
Australia
continues to be the juggernaut of the Pacific, having a very high GDP/c, a
remarkable net ecological footprint, a stellar human development index, a fine
spread of income and a very low debt to GDP %.
Australia’s democratic government supports open international trade and
a free market economy. It exports food and
its natural resources are abundant: coal, iron ore, copper, gold, natural gas,
and uranium.
Notable Country:
|
GDP/c
|
Ann % Growth
|
NEFP
|
HDI
|
IE
|
DBT%
|
China
|
6.2
|
8.28
|
-3.1
|
.728
|
48.0
|
22.2
|
While China has a long way to go, its rate of income growth
is pretty spectacular.
World Series
Champion!
Who’s the World Series champ? Eastern League champ Australia outscored Western League
heavyweight Sweden, trumping Sweden
in 5 of 6 categories.
Championship
|
GDP/c
|
Ann % Growth
|
NEFP
|
HDI
|
IE
|
DBT%
|
Sweden
|
57.2
|
.71
|
9.4
|
.940
|
23.0
|
37.0
|
Australia
|
70.0
|
1.35
|
19.5
|
.978
|
30.5
|
27.1
|
World Average
|
14.1
|
1.88
|
1.9
|
.725
|
39.8
|
48.1
|
Congratulations!
